What Would Happen if a Nuclear War with Russia Broke Out Russia has preserved, even modernized, its own "triad" with nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles, a large fleet of long-range strike aircraft and increasingly sophisticated nuclear-armed submarines. Russia-Ukraine war: What would a victory look like now to Putin? What would World War 3 actually look like? - Russia Beyond "It's much more about the U.S. than it is about Syria and Assad," Galeotti said. If war does break out it could rapidly become more destructive than the Russia-Ukraine War, with conventional and nuclear weapons exacting a horrific toll on both sides. In reality, civilians would know in advance if a nuclear weapon would be potentially detonated, giving some enough time to seek shelter. "I have not seen ISIL flying any airplanes that require SA-15s or SA-22s [Russian missiles]. Ukraine War / War With Russia: It's almost like NO ONE thought it through first before they launched this proxy war in Ukraine? Ukraine: what would a Russian invasion actually look like? These are The Russians recently announced plans for a naval exercise in the eastern Mediterranean this fall, but did not specify exactly when ships would deploy to the region. Top editors give you the stories you want delivered right to your inbox each weekday. Russia launches the remainder of its nukes, this time with an eye toward destruction of anything that could contribute to the war effort. It really doesnt make much difference, because there would be hardly anyone left in the United States in a position to notice. At that point, either side could opt to massively escalate, reasoning that the first side to use larger, more powerful strategic nuclear weapons could gain a survival advantage over the other, launching a first strike so devastating it destroys most of the enemys strategic arsenal. What does future warfare look like? It's here already - BBC News March 22, 2014, 5:11 AM PDT. Russia currently occupies parts of Ukraine, but the U.S. still considers Moscow's March 2014 invasion illegal and its control there illegitimate. As a result, Ukraine has found itself with no country willing to actively defend it against nuclear-armed Russia for fear of entering into a nuclear war. Ethiopia has a civil war, Ukraine's separatist conflict has killed over 14,000 people since 2014, Syria's insurgency simmers on and Islamic State group is rampaging through parts of Africa. Such a scenario would result in the deaths of millions of people around the world within hours. In our scenario, both sides are devastated with no winners. Russia's aerospace industry, for example, has benefited greatly from international exports to non-Western nations, which go to Russia to buy effective fighter jets that are cheaper than their Western variants. That's reflected in the fact that Russia maintains a lone aircraft carrier while the U.S. Navy's 10-carrier fleet operates on a continuing global deployment cycle. Early on the morning of Sept. 30, a Russian three-star general approached the American embassy in Baghdad, walked past a wall of well-armed Marines, to deliver face-to-face a diplomatic demarche to the United States. Russia has a very diverse atomic arsenal, which allows it to launch attacks using land, sea and air delivery platforms: this is the so-called. And the U.S. military maintains a broad technological edge and a vastly superior ability to project power around the world. It is important for cooler heads to prevail and to provide diplomatic off-ramps for this conflict.. It is well suited for relying on a particular set of capabilities known as "anti-access and area denial. Plan A shows how a localized nuclear exchange could quickly escalate into a global catastrophe. Read about our approach to external linking. Scientists at Princeton University decided to develop this potential scenario using "independent assessments of current U.S. and Russian force postures, nuclear war plans, and nuclear weapons targets." Russia has one of the biggest nuclear arsenals in the world, and is estimated to have thousands of nuclear warheads in its stockpile, assigned for both long-range strategic launchers and shorter-range tactical nuclear forces. What does Russia's atomic arsenal look like? They're using sophisticated electronic warfare systems to jam the Ukrainians' communications, radar, GPS and early warning-detection equipment, said Ihor Dolhov, Ukraine's deputy defense minister for European integration. The first is gone and the second is fraying, to the extent that Pyongyang may feel like it has a moment and Seoul may struggle to find the patience to tolerate the antics of its neighbor. We may earn commission from links on this page, but we only recommend products we back. Russia has a population of 144 million people with a larger percentage of its population in rural areas away from the direct effects of nuclear attack. Did they Show more. The only alternatives are naval supply lines running from Crimea, requiring a passage of up to 10 days round-trip. Committee votes on major defense policy bill expected in May, Military families share workout with first lady Jill Biden, US conducts first evacuation of its citizens from Sudan war, Ukrainian drones strike Crimea oil depot, Russian official says, Army identifies 3 soldiers killed in Alaska helicopter crash, Understanding the role of artificial intelligence, Mark Kitz keynote speech at the C4ISRNET conference, The latest on software, data and artificial intelligence, Army grounds helicopter fleet for force-wide safety stand down. Still more, living downwind from blast zones, would be at risk of illness or death from radioactive fallout. "It would be a contested environment. Over the summer China conducted tests of its advanced hypersonic missiles, capable of travelling at many times the speed of sound. Hearst Magazine Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved. What would happen if Russia and the United States got into a nuclear war? On February 24, Russian forces began advancing into Ukrainian territory across several fronts, marking a major escalation in a conflict that started in 2014. When Is Ukraine's Counteroffensive Coming? The four-minute audiovisual piece called "Plan A", which was developed by researchers associated with Princeton University's Program on Science & Global Security (SGS), has seen renewed interest since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Video: As War Between Russia and Ukraine Continues in Europe, North Korea Appears To Be Rebuilding Its Nuclear Test Site (Veuer) The nuclear surprise attack, known as a "first strike," would . MOSCOW -- We winced in our filthy trench as each rocket-propelled grenade whistled overhead and exploded behind us. "We should be able to achieve our objectives and keep the Indo-Pacific, for example, free and open and prosperous into the future. What would a U.S.-Russia war look like? | The Week Farkas is stepping down from her post at the end of October, after five years at the Defense Department. Ukraine Counter-Offensive Will Be Like a 'Big Bang,' Says Military Expert The United States signalled Friday that a. I have not seen ISIL flying any airplanes that require sophisticated air-to-air capabilities. "We've got a ton of experience in low-intensity warfare, counterinsurgency warfare, whereas a bulk of the Ukraine experience is facing a 21st-century, near-peer adversary," said Army Lt. Col. Michael Kloepper, commander of the U.S. Army's 2nd Battalion, 503rd Infantry Regiment, 173rd Airborne Brigade, which recently began its third rotation into Ukraine to train that nation's military forces. Additionally, there are legally binding contracts between countries, including Russia, that prevent a nuclear war from occurring. as well as other partner offers and accept our. But what if the current tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine, say, or between the US and China over Taiwan broke out into hostilities? The simulation assumes that Russia would target major US cities and there are no bomb threat warnings in those major cities. But over time I think we would be able to degrade it. Sporadic fighting between China and India continues on the Roof of the World. Russian air force Su-30MKI fighter jet takes off during the MAKS-2015 International Aviation and Space Show in Zhukovsky, outside Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, Aug. 26, 2015. NATO is struggling to figure out how to respond, with member nations holding differing perspectives on when Russian behavior crosses a red line. Bombers are particularly useful in this situation, as they could be used to actively hunt down what remained of Russias ICBMs, particularly those like the SS-27 mounted on 16-wheeled missile transport trucks. The ICBMs would target Americas nukes, including the 400 ICBM silos sprinkled across the western United States, nuclear bomber bases in Missouri and Louisiana, and missile submarine bases at Kings Bay, Georgia, and Kitsap, Washington. The Soviet-era weapons design bureaus remain prominent internationally. The six hypersonic weapons are not particularly accurate, but loaded with devastating two-megaton warheads (two million tons of TNT), so theres no need for pinpoint precision. The result: Russia is unexpectedly re-emerging as America's chief military rival. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money. Russia's military strategy is focused on access denial. Andrew Tilghman is the executive editor for Military Times. Kalashnikov, who died on December 23, 2013 at the age of 94, was to receive a funeral with full state honours and be buried at the Federal Military Memorial Cemetery (FVMK) in Mytishchi outside Moscow, the defence ministry said. Those that survive would be left without power, medical care, communications, and viable food and fuel distribution networks. After . The war has had a ripple effect on the world stage, dramatically increasing the stakes of disputes that have quietly smoldered for decades. Yet right now, on the cusp of 2022, the Russian forces massing on Ukraine's border, while certainly inclusive of offensive cyber and electronic warfare capabilities, are mainly composed of conventional hardware, such as tanks, armoured vehicles and troops - the same sort of hardware that would be deployed if Moscow decided to roll back into the Baltic states, for example. But the gap has narrowed in recent years. Paula Bronstein for Foreign Policy. "In all likelihood, yes," he says. Before covering the military, he worked as a reporter for the Houston Chronicle in Texas, the Albany Times Union in New York and The Associated Press in Milwaukee. Instead she's set to lead the U.S., NATO, and Europe down a path of ruin, warns Scott Ritter. Toe to toe, a conventional war between the U.S. and Russia would be no contest. Almost any imaginable conflict, however, would end up including the United States and very likely Japan, and would thus constitute a great power war. That has sparked concern in the West that Putin's ultimate goal is to break NATO with force, if intimidation fails. If it involves explosions or projectiles, he's generally in favor of it. "It is good for us to be aware how they fight," said Evelyn Farkas, deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia, in an interview with Military Times on Sept. 10. Under Article 5 of NATOs founding treaty, Washington has extended the protection of its nuclear umbrella to NATO nations, which means the U.S. would treat a nuclear attack on those countries in the same way it would an attack on American soil; in other words, it protects them by promising to retaliate in kind to any nuclear strikes on their territory. Photo Credit: Vasily Maximov/AFP/Getty Images. Many of the aspects of a major conflict between the West and say, Russia or China, have already been developed, rehearsed and deployed. There may also be a significant public backlash against a change of government led from Moscow. The United States has been steadfast in its refusal to become directly involved in the Russo-Ukrainian War and for good reason. There will be no return to normalcy or status quo ante. Russia's electronic warfare capability is also daunting to Pentagon military planners; left unclear is the extent to which Russia could jam the radars and signals intelligence that forms the foundation of the U.S.'s advanced air power. Russian troops deployed close to the Ukrainian border will return to base after completing their exercises, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday. In our scenario, well look at a surprise nuclear first strike that leads to all-out war. What these documents reveal, however, is that the war is going worse for Ukraine than our political leaders have admitted to us, while going badly for Russia too, so that neither side is likely to . The commander of U.S. Strategic Command, Admiral Charles Richard, testified to Congress in April 2021 that the United States might well face a two-front or even a three-front war if Russia were to . Over the past year tensions between Greece and Turkey have increased substantially, driven in large part by Turkey's assertive foreign policy turn and by the domestic vulnerability of the Erdogan regime. "It is estimated that there would be more than 90 million people dead and injured within the first few hours of the conflict," Glaser said. Before we begin, we should note that neither of the scenarios are likely to occur in our lifetimes. Kyle Mizokami is a writer on defense and security issues and has been at Popular Mechanics since 2015. Most importantly, the strike would preserve Washingtons ability to communicate with its nuclear forces. Russia claims to have some 750 tanks in its western military region, though its unclear how much of that equipment is legitimately combat-ready. For months, there has been . The Navy would begin hunting Russian missile submarines, including those that might be parked off the East and West Coasts of the U.S., armed with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. . "As far as one can tell, this is the most serious crisis with a potential nuclear dimension involving Russia and the United States/NATO since the end of the Cold War, even if the risk of a nuclear war is still considered 'small'as many analysts would argue," Alex Glaser, one the creators of Plan A, told Newsweek. What Victory Will Look Like in Ukraine - The Atlantic Sign up for notifications from Insider! Russian military jets carried out airstrikes in Syria for the first time on Wednesday, targeting what Moscow said were Islamic State positions. What Would a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal Look Like? Russia's invasion of Ukraine has set off a new wave of concern about cyber attacks. and Russian leaders understand that a full-scale nuclear war would be a civilization-ending event, Drozdenko explains. Russia has slightly more warheads overall about 8,500 but a slightly fewer 1,800 of them operational. Experts inside Russia believe the incursion into Syria, along with Putin's aggressive speech at the United Nations on Sept. 28, signal his long-term interest in becoming a key player in the region. Ukrainian officials in Kiev have made repeated pleas for more. I asked Franz-Stefan Gady, a specialist on future warfare at the IISS, what this would mean for you and me, here on the ground. Leaked papers reveal reality behind Ukraine war propaganda and it's What Victory Will Look Like in Ukraine. She is referring, of course, to Russia and China, described respectively in the UK government's Integrated Review as "the acute threat" and the long-term "strategic rival" to the West. Five U.S. Army brigadesbacked up by fighters, bombers, and cruise missilesdrive from Poland to Kyiv, then on to Donetsk. What would happen if Russia used a nuclear weapon in Ukraine? "The simulation was also supported by data sets of the nuclear weapons currently deployed, weapon yields, and possible targets for particular weapons, as well as the order of battle estimating which weapons go to which targets in which order in which phase of the war to show the evolution of the nuclear conflict. Once that happens, all bets are off. Russia remains weak, according to many traditional criteria. Defense News' Russia correspondent, Matthew Bodner, contributed to this report from Moscow. Before its weapon systems are destroyed, Russia fires missiles launched from silos, road-mobile vehicles, and submarines. "We are really at a strategic inflection point where we - the US, the UK and our allies - are coming out of 20 years of focusing on counter terrorism and counter insurgency, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and lifting our gaze to realise we are now in a very serious great-power competition," she says. The U.S. operates 10 aircraft carriers; Russia has just one. On Wednesday, Russian officials expressed openness to a peace agreement that would allow an independent Ukraine to maintain its own military as long as it committed to a "neutral status" akin to. "If we put our minds together and really invest in the right technologies, the right concepts, and we develop those with speed and scale, we should be able to deter great-power war," she says. Over the weekend, Russian . The strike targets Americas remaining military bases, industry, energy, communications, and transportation facilitiespractically anything that makes 21st-century life worth living. "This is really quite difficult for them. Although the real stakes of control over small slivers of territory in nearly uninhabitable mountain terrain remain elusive, neither China nor India have backed away from the conflict. Kyles articles have appeared at The Daily Beast, U.S. "The Russian defense industry is being rebuilt from ruins," said Vadim Kozyulin, a military expert at the Moscow-based PIR Center, a think tank. How long that can be sustained is unclear.That and other questions about Russian military capabilities and objectives are taking center stage as Putin shows a relentless willingness to use military force in a heavy-handed foreign policy aimed at restoring his nation's stature as a world power. "It looks like I face life in jail for that case," Navalny said. After all, there is little reason to trust Russia at this point. Imprecise language used to describe the tensions that have been building at the border - the prospect of a "Russian invasion of Ukraine" - has not helped. The audio-visual scenario is called "Plan A" and it shows how devastating a nuclear war would be. Many of the aspects of a major conflict between the West and say, Russia or China, have already been developed, rehearsed and deployed. Russia's Victory Day parade is an annual extravagance in Red Square. Explore in 3D: The dazzling crown that makes a king. The celebrated realist Hans J. Morgenthau wrote, in his rules for effective diplomacy, that you should. Maintaining peace requires careful statesmanship; managing escalation during war requires extraordinary skill. The US conducted a military exercise last week which simulated a "limited" nuclear exchange with Russia, a senior Pentagon official has confirmed. Scenario 1: decapitation. AFP PHOTO / ANDREY KRONBERG (Photo credit should read ANDREY KRONBERG/AFP/Getty Images). But few believe any conflict would play out like that. She believes the solution is two things - close consultation and collaboration with allies and investment in the right places. In the current situation, lacking a direct U.S. and Russian confrontation, the likelihood of nuclear war is somewhere near zero. As . However, the U.S. does not have the same security relationship with Ukraine as it does with NATO member nations and allies such as South Korea and Japan. Mad men, unbound by reality and a survival instinct, might also choose nuclear war. It's denial." Its aim is to highlight the "potentially catastrophic" consequences of a nuclear war between Russia and NATO. Any attempt by the U.S. and its allies to infiltrate Russian air space "would not necessarily be easy," Schwartz said. What Would a NATO-Russia War Really Look Like? The Kremlin blames the U.S. and NATO for causing the current crisis. Today, the U.S. spends nearly 10 times more than Russia on national defense. Russia depends on Iranian airspace for its flight corridors into Syria, and reportedly is prepared to support Iranian ground troops aligned with the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The United States launches a counterstrike, but it is seriously hobbled by a lack of forces, with most of the U.S. Strategic Commands Minuteman III ICBMs and B-2 and B-52 bombers destroyed in the first strike. Well assume Russia strikes first. So is it all doom and gloom? Could our phones suddenly stop working, petrol stations run dry and food distribution get thrown into chaos? Falling on May 9, it commemorates the Nazi surrender of World War II with a lavish spectacle meant to project might. These tensions aren't new, but historically they have been constrained by the Cold War and by the post-Cold War liberal international order. Russia's inability to make progress may threaten the stability of the Putin government, inclining Moscow to contemplate dangerous escalation. Russia itself would certainly suffer deaths in the tens of millions, but in this scenario, a death count seems like a futile means of keeping score. Unlike conventional war, a nuclear war is not something that happens out of the blue. In effect, Russia has two armies: About two thirds of the roughly 800,000-man force remains filled with unmotivated and poorly trained draftees, but about one third is not and those are the units outfitted with top-notch gear, including the Armata T-14 Main Battle Tanks. What war with China could look like - Air Force Times Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated that he understands the peril of nuclear weapons. Russias invasion of Ukraine is already one of the most destructive and lethal wars in recent memory, from the shelling of cities to the use of thermobaric vacuum weapons. Thats led experts and civilians, alike, to wonder whatif NATO and the U.S. become directly involved in the conflicta nuclear war between Washington and Moscow might look like. What would a war with Russia look like today. ", "The United States and Russia are going for different things," Galeotti said. Both the United States and Russia believe that a nuclear war is not winnable and should never be fought. Video, The secret mine that hid the Nazis' stolen treasure, MasterChef Australia host Jock Zonfrillo dies, US principal visits David sculpture after nudity row, Adidas sued by investors over Kanye West deal, UK chip giant Arm files for blockbuster share sale, US bank makes last ditch bid to find rescuer, Pope urges Hungarians to 'open doors' to migrants. No matter what, it would be a nightmare for Europe's leaders. It's unclear who will take her place as the Pentagon's key policy maker for Russia-related issues. She believes the West's focus on the Middle East for the past two decades has allowed its adversaries to do a lot of catching up in military terms. ', In a rare address to his nation on September 21st, Putin announced a "partial mobilisation" of around 300,000 troops to the war in Ukraine. It's about "working out at what point a military response is the correct response," said Nick de Larrinaga, a London-based analyst for IHS Jane's Defense and Security Group. Russia-Ukraine war - latest news updates; Pjotr Sauer. Yet the tension between the U.S. and Russia over the war is a reminder that as long as both sides have nuclear weapons, the possibility of a nuclear war happening is not zero. Meanwhile, the Russian army, still predominantly a conscripted force, is being transitioned to an American-style professional force. aggressively undermining America's 25-year claim to being the only truly global superpower. Michele Flournoy was a Pentagon policy chief for US strategy under both Presidents Clinton and Obama. April 24, 2023, 10:00 AM. The future of the Ukraine conflict is unclear. He lives in San Francisco. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. While fighting has thus far remained quite limited, the desire to defend national prestige can rapidly become poisonous for even the wisest and most sensible leaders. "While we were focused on the broader Middle East," she says, "these countries went to school on the Western way of war. The second, more devastating countervalue scenario involves an all-out use of nukes to destroy the United States ability to wage war, with the side effect of reducing American society to a pre-industrial level of development. In response, the U.S. and its NATO allies are working to build, train and equip Ukrainian forces. The armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has aptly demonstrated what future warfare will look like, with its swarms of kamikaze drones constantly on their enemy's tail. Such an attack would likely kill no more than 20 million Americans and leave much of the country intact. In our scenario, the President of the United States has ordered the U.S. military to intervene on Ukraines behalf, destroying Russian Ground Forces units in the field and downing Russian fighter jets. The simulation begins in the context of a conventional conflictRussia fires a warning shot from a base near the city of Kaliningrad in an attempt to stop a U.S./NATO advance. Because of the dire consequences of a nuclear conflict, it is incumbent on nuclear states to seek diplomatic solutions, Drozdenko says. Here's what it might look like. Russia has announced successful tests of its Zircon hypersonic cruise missile, proclaiming that it can defeat any defences anywhere in the world. Photo Credit: Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP. Another option for Russia, of course, is to shift to a conventional fight. But there's one area where the West is falling dangerously behind Russia and China. For example, he said, "one can look at the U.S. Navy as massively superior to the Russian navy. Since March 2014, when Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in southern Ukraine, the U.S. has contributed $244 million in nonlethal security assistance and training. ", Ukrainian serviceman patrol near the chemical plant in Avdeevka, Donetsk region, on June 20, 2015. What Would a NATO-Russia War Really Look Like? In the four-minute-long video, scientists play out a scenario where Russia is attempting to fight off members of NATO. With much of Europe destroyed, NATO launches around 600 warheads from U.S.-land and submarine-based missiles at Russian nuclear forces. President Biden speaks during the U.S. Conference of Mayors winter meeting in D.C. on Jan. 21. A World War Could Break Out in the Arctic | The Nation Transcript: Here's What a Cyber War With Russia May Actually Look Like The problem is, with a nuclear power, you try to avoid a full-scale fighting.". "China's People's Liberation Army has built a new agency called the Strategic Support Force which looks at space, electronic warfare and cyber capabilities.". KYIV "After Ukraine, Chechnya," says the Chechen commander fighting on Kyiv's side.